Monday, September 20, 2004
IV. ECONOMIC VALUE OF A BRED HEIFER
-- The economic value of a bred heifer needs to be based on the net income (net value added) of all the calves that heifer produces while in your herd. The yellow line presents my projected net income for Northern Plains ranchers for 2004 through 2012. The green line is my projected net cash flows for a typical Northern Plains beef cow herd. These projections are based on Nothern Plains 1999-2003 five-year averages.
The Economic Value Of bred heifer is the sum of net incomes generated by every calf she produces while in your herd discounted back to todays dollars. This chart illustrates my projected net incomes for years 2004- 2012. The base is the 5-year net income average for Northern Plains beef cow herds 1999-2003. Some good time are projected for beef cow producers over the next few years. But... the good times will not last for ever. I want every rancher to take advantage of the current good times in prepartion for when net incomes turn downward.
This chart presents my long-run net cash flow projections for Northern Plains beef cow producers. The base here is the 1999-2003 Northern Plains Farm Business Management Summaries. Net Cash Flow is projected record high over the next three years. I want to do everything I can to help ranchers take advantage of these good time as these good times will not go on for ever.
This is the final table presenting the "Calculated Economic Value Of Preg-Checked Heifer" during Fall 2004. Note the economic value of a hiefer varies with the number of life-time calves produced. Column 4 presents a typical case where the heifer has 7 consecutive calves in her life-time. Column 5 presents a special case where the heifer has one calf and then is open as a 3-year old. After that, this female has 5 more calves.
Thursday, September 16, 2004
III. PLANNING PRICES
--Each Year I Prepare A Set Of Long-Run Planning Prices For Beef Producers. The Table (picture below) Gives History From 1985 Through 2003 And Projections For 2004 Through 2013. This Table Is Based On Northern Plains Historical Prices, FAPPRI's Long-Run Prices, And My Professional Judgement. I Feel That These Long-Run Prices Are Generally Applicable To All Regions Of The U.S.
Long-Run Beef Price Cycles
-- Going From 1985 to Projections for 2013. Two Complete Beef Price Cycles Are Presented. One Is The Past Cycle From 1985 To 1996. The Other is the Current Beef Price Cycle From 1996 to 2013. Years 2004 Through 2013 Are Projected By Western Edge Consulting With A Foundation Relating Back To FAPRI's Early 2004 Baseline Book, pg 35.
Projeced Short-Run Planning Prices For Ranchers --
Projected with Western Edge Consulting's Production/Marketing Simulator -- a Futures Based Price Projection Model. Projected 15 Sep 2004.
Projected Long-Run Planning Prices For Ranchers --
Projeced with Western Edge Consulting's Production/Marketing Simulator. Price Foundation is FAPRI's Early 2004 Baseline Book, page 35. Questions, email firstname.lastname@example.org.
Friday, September 03, 2004
II. Beef Cow Profits In Northern Plains
-- 1990 thru 2005 Projections
I. Earned Profits From High-Return, Low-Return, and Average Beef Cow Producers
-- Source: Cattle-Fax