Saturday, December 04, 2004


Long-Run Slaughter Cattle Planning Prices

Below are my projected long-run slaughter steer planning prices for the current cattle cycle. This chart in past of a 3-chart series on long-run planning price that have been posted to this web site.

It is recommend that you pull off all three charts and study them as you build your ranch business plan for 2005 and beyond.

For those of you that have went through drought and are now contemplating re-population of your beef cow herd, it is absolutely critical that you study these planning prices as you launch your re-population program.

I am projecting that many re-population programs will end up being done with expensive replacement females leading to becoming a high-cost producer.

Posted by Hello

Thursday, December 02, 2004


Feeder Cattle Long-Run Planning Prices

Feeder cattle prices are projected to follow a similar pattern to the feeder calf price but generally do not change quite as much as you go through the beef price cycle. The feeder cattle beef price cycle is projected to go from 1996 through 2013. These projections suggest that we have also reached a new plateau for feeder cattle prices for the rest of decade. Posted by Hello


VIII. Long-Run Planning Prices

Over the last few years I have distributed my "Classic Cattle Cycles Profit Strategies" Computer CD Video to ranchers and beef specialists. This CD Video goes into detail on 5 different strategies to make the cattle cycle work for you. This CD Video covers my Cattle Cycle Seminar during the 1990s. This Video was based on my late 2001 and early 2002 cattle cycle projections. In this Video, the current beef price cycle was projected to go from 1996 through 2008.

Clearly, the current beef price cycle has now been extended. A lot has happen in the last 2 years, including a five- year drought in the Western U.S., two BSE announcements, and the U.S. and Canadian borders closed to beef exports.

The new beef price cycle chart presented here updates my price cycle projections as of late 2004. Basically, the extended drought has extended the current beef price cycle from 1996 to 2012/2013. We are only now (with 2004 heifer calves) starting to rebuild the nations beef cow herd. This build up was delayed by the pro-longed national drought.

I encourage ranchers to take this chart and apply my Classic Cattle Cycle CD's suggested strategies to this current cattle cycle projection. This new beef price cycle suggests several good years for beef cow producers.

I hope each of you adopt those management strategies that take advantage of these good time; but.. many of you are going to miss this great opportunity. This is not the time for "management as usual." Many ranchers are going to leave a lot of money on the table in these good times. I am going to do all I can to help ranchers take every dollar possible from the table during these good times.

If you do not have my "Classic Cattle Cycle CD Video that plays in your computer, you can order one from me ($20 plus 4.95 shipping and handlinig) by emailing me at and asking for a copy of the "Classic Cattle Cycle CD Video." I know of no other seminar that I have given that will make you any more money than my "Classic Cattle Cycle Seminar" presented on my computer CD Video.
Posted by Hello

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