Monday, August 15, 2005

Market Comments

source: CME Daily Livestock Newsletter 8-15-05

There were no surprises in USDA's monthly update of supply projections for 2005 and 2006. The chart to the left sum�marizes the relative supply situation of the four main meat species and the expected growth in 2005 and 2006.

If any�thing, the chart should be useful in understanding that despite much talk of daily increases or declines in production, overall beef, pork, and poultry meat production in 2005 and 2006 is expected to continue to increase across the board. Indeed, if we also add up the pounds of lamb, mutton, veal and other poultry produced, US red meat and poultry production in 2006 is now expected to exceed 90 billion pounds, a new all time record amount.

The chart also shows which areas of the meat industry are growing, and which ones are not. The fact that beef produc�tion is expected to increase 2.6% in 2005 and 3.1% in 2006 points to the need for quick resumption of exports. Current beef exports have increased compared to last year but still remain (for first six months) as much as 76% lower than the levels reached in 2003.

On the other hand, the growth in broiler pro�duction remains robust. Just as a quick aside, it is worth not�ing that since 1980, beef tonnage has increased by 3.5 billion pounds, pork tonnage by 4.2 billion and broiler tonnage by 24.3 billion pounds.
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